Autopilot · growth · Sept 2026

Scale spend. Hold CAC.

One variable to hold, seven named ways it breaks, and a capability facing every one of them.

$1B invested
Performance
Portfolios
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Danilo Vicioso — Growth · v1.3
Contents Growth plan · ten parts

One number to protect. Seven ways it breaks. Three moves.

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The system

Only variety absorbs variety.

A disturbance with no capability facing it will move the number, and spend reveals it long before analysis does. So the plan is not a list of tactics — it is one variable to hold and a matching set of ways to hold it.

Seven disturbances, scored, owned, gated by a number.

ID Disturbance S×L Leading indicator Gate threshold Owner
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Fig. 1 — risk register, scored and owned

The ceiling. Five assumed lines, labelled as assumed.

Swap in real numbers the day they exist — the arithmetic holds either way. The credibility is in showing the working, not in the answer.

A free signup — what ads buy
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A Plus subscriber — $100/yr
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$1B invested, as published
Pelosi Tracker+
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Zero value is assigned to press and earned media — the Pelosi Tracker’s own reach is the real subsidy behind a $12 ceiling being viable at all.

The spend plan. The blanks are yours to fill on day one.

I don’t know your CPM, your install rate or your CAC — so I haven’t invented them. What I can commit to is the spend ramp and the condition each week has to satisfy before the next one is funded.

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Week Spend/day Sessions Installs Synced CAC Plus Gate state
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Fig. 2 — spend ramp and the gate on each week · performance columns filled from your account
Creative volume, as arithmetic

Whatever your CAC is, creative volume is what moves it.

To hold frequency under 2.2 at $3,200/day takes roughly 16 net-new concepts a week — six creators and an editor, about 12% of spend. That ratio is from running it before, not from your account. Meta has no other lever left: audiences and bidding are automated, only the asset is yours.

Where the next $100,000 goes.

Each line carries the CAC it has to beat to keep its budget, and my confidence in it. No line claims a CAC I have measured — these are thresholds, not forecasts.

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Fig. 3 — allocation, with the threshold each line must clear

What has to be true before a channel opens.

Pre-committing to not doing things is what makes the allocation believable. No channel opens on enthusiasm.

Channel Opens only when First test Status
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Fig. 4 — channel entry criteria

Payback is the real constraint, not CAC.

cumulative gross profit per acquisition
$0 $35 $70 $105 $140 06121824 mo $100 — direct Plus CAC ceiling $12 — free-signup CAC ceiling month 13 — $100 paid back direct Plus subscriber free signup tops out at $8.10 — never clears $12
Said plainly A $12 free-signup CAC never pays back on subscription revenue. Only earned media makes it survivable — so paid aims at direct Plus.

What this covers, and what it deliberately doesn’t.

A plan without an out-list isn’t a plan, it’s a wish. These are the things I will not be working on, so nobody is waiting on them.

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Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.

Gate Trips when What happens automatically
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The kill condition If blended CAC sits above the ceiling for three consecutive weeks at steady spend, paid acquisition stops. Not slows — stops.

What exists, what is missing, and the order that is forced.

Dependencies decide the sequence, not preference.

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Brand
Quiver Quantitative
Wolff’s Flagship
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Fig. 5 — capability map, dependencies not dates · assets already in hand

Hiring, triggered by a number rather than a date.

Nobody gets hired because a quarter started.

Role Unlocked when Because Shape
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Fig. 6 — first four roles, each gated by a metric
Every number, and where it came from. Appendix
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Week one is where it starts.

Two arms, one variable each, and a decision written before the data arrives.

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Danilo Vicioso · danilojvicioso@gmail.com Growth plan · v1.3 · revised 4 Sept 2026