Two experiments designed so neither can be blamed on the other, and a decision written before the data arrives.
Two variables moved at once. Whatever the number does, both sides of the room can claim it and neither can prove it. So I cross them instead — each arm holds one side constant.
At a 6% landing conversion it takes about 3,100 sessions an arm to detect a 25% relative lift at 80% power, α = 0.05 — roughly five days at $460/day each. The real figure is computed Monday from your own baseline. Below whatever it comes out to, I don’t call the test — I say what it needs and keep it running.
Convention is BRAND_WEEK_ARM_variables_version. Identical targeting on both arms, budgets locked equal.
Fig. 5 — campaign structure, two arms and one control| Event | Parameters | Fires | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| {{ e.event }} | {{ e.params }} | {{ e.fires }} | {{ e.status }} |
| Event | Parameters | Fires | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| {{ e.event }} | {{ e.params }} | {{ e.fires }} | {{ e.status }} |
Concepts get one week, not three — and the reason is written next to each so the same idea doesn’t come back in a different font. These are my own concepts, named; the CTRs get filled in from the real week.
One number to protect, seven named ways it breaks, and a capability facing every one of them.
Danilo Vicioso · danilojvicioso@gmail.comWeek one · v1.2 · revised 4 Sept 2026